Where is Santa?

I am selling out to be 80% large cap value, 20% Money Market today. I am down over 4% for this miserable year. TTFN. Don

All In

Today is a good day to go all in. I think I will go 100% large cap value.
Think good thoughts. TTFN, Don

Overbought

The market is overbought. So, I am selling 70% of my international fund. That will make me 60% RLV, 10% Mid-small, 10% international. TTFN Don

Sy Harding buy in

Tomorrow it the first possible day for Sy Harding to issue a Seasonal Buy Signal. And, unless the market crashes today, it is a mathematical certainty that the buy signal will happen. So, if anyone is listening, I advise increasing your stock market allocation today. But, we are short-term overbought, and I am reluctant to go into 2X funds when we are overbought. TTFN, Don

20% international

My new split as of today is 59% Large Cap Value, 21% mid-small cap, 20% International. TTFN Don

All In

Large Cap Value and Mid Cap are both down as we speak. It is probably a good time to to 100% long. So, I will be 60% RLV, 40% Mid.

Separately, I have decided to shut down our brick and mortar store (All About Angels, 249 N Rand, Lake Zurich, IL, 60047), and to become an Internet only store (www.all-about-angels.com). So, we just have a little over 3 months left. TTFN, Don

OE week

This is Options Expiration week. Today is a down day, and in my juidgement, a good opprotunity to go 90% long. 50% Large Cap Value, 40% mid cap, 10% stable value. TTFN Don

80% in

My YTD loss is now down to 1.4%. One of my mechanical rules was satisfied today, so I am increasing to 80% in, split between mid-small cap and large cap value.

Today's Angel news is that Andrea has come back to work for us. She will begin adding new products to our website. TTFN, Don

Increasing to 60%

I am increasing my exposure to 60%. 20% in large cap value, 40% in mid-small cap.
Sidewalk sales was a big success at All About Angels in Lake Zurich. It will help us convert to an Internet only operation. TTFN, Don

August drop

August is living up to it's reputation as a bad month. So, I am reducing my exposure back to 50% today. Don

Sidewalk sales

It looks like the stock market has been having a sale. I plan to go in 60% today.
And, to celebrate, all-about-angels.com will have a sidewalk sale today.
Everything in the store is 10 - 50% off this Wednesday.
On line customers can get 10% off any purchase by using the coupon code "sidewalk", now thru Saturday, August 4th.

TTFN, Don

No point being a hero. I am selling out 100% today. TTFN, Don

Can't post a title. Second quarter earnings start tonight. And, we are a bit overbought. So, I think I will take 25% off the table. Got about 2% on this move. Don't want to be greedy. TTFN, Don

BTW, check out the pocket angels that we now offer!

June Fed Meeting

The June Fed meeing is uppon us. The market is oversold, and we are going into the "best 7 days" of the month. And, according to the Stock Traders Almanac, we are about to start the summer ralley in the Nasdaq. So, I am going 100% long large cap growth.

On the angel front, Johns Christian Shop has closed in Lake Zurich. So, that should help us this fall. One of our very popular bereavment pieces is the "if tears could build a stairway" piece.

A gift

I had planned to sell down to 50% yesterday, but my friend Chuck pointed out that we were oversold. So, I decided to stay in another day, as this is Options Expiration Week, and the markets can be volatile.

So, it looks like everything we lost yesterday is being given back today. So, with this gift, I will sell out and go to 100% stable value today.

Enjoy your Fathers Day. TTFN, Don

Hurricane season

Happy June 1st, the start of hurricane season.

I have been absent for a while. But, fortunately for me, I was 60% invested last week, and 100% invested this week in disciplined equity, which tracks the S&P 500. I intend to stay in at least thru next Friday. I think I will adopt a new sell strategy. If, by watching the MACD, we are clearstation neutral, I will sell 10% every day. If we become clearstation green again, I will return to 100% long. I will go to all cash when we become clearstation red. We will see how that works.

This is our second week of summer hours at the angel shop. Last week, our sales were up over year ago levels. So far, none of our customers have complained.

TTFN, Don

New all-time high in S&P 500

Intraday today, we have reached an all-time new high on the S&P 500. So, I am going to start committing funds. Today, I have put 5% into the diciplined equity fund, which closely tracks the S&P 500, as far as I can tell. TTFN. Don

Bus trip

We had a mystery shopping bus come yesterday morning. It was exciting having 54 people in the shop at one time.

On the investing front, the Dow continues to go up, and the R2K continues to go down. The S&P 500 is up slightly. Regardless, I am very happy sitting in cash for now.

Seperately, my daughter pitched an exciting game last night for Montini. Her team won 1 - 0. They ended the regular season in second place. I am very proud of her.

Out 2007

Well friends, our Internet sales were very nice this season for Mother's Day. But, our in-store sales were down compared to last yer. So, tomorrow, we become an Internet store with limited hours open to the public.

I recommend to all to get completely out of the market for now. The seasonal sell is definitely on.

TTFN, Don

Selling more

I have been selling half of my remaining holdings in the R2K fund each day that the market was up. I am currently only 13% invested. On the first down day, I will go to 100% cash. And, it looks like today will be that day.

On the angel front, business is very good. Mothers Day is the second-busiest season of the year for us. Sales are up 25% over the same month a year ago. After Mothers Day, summer is a very slow time. So, we are restricting our showroom hours so that we too can enjoy the summer.

TTFN, Don

Nearing the end

April has been very good to me. But, small cap appears to be running out of steam. However, we are in the midst of the "best 7 days" of the monthly stock market cycle. So, even though the R2K is down a bit today, I plan to hold on thru next Friday.

If you need a Mother's Day gift for the angel in your life, don't forget to look at All-About-Angels.com. We have lots of uncommon angels for the people that make your life better. We even have aunt angels that are popular this time of year. Don

Sy's 2007 warning

I am still 100% in the small cap fund.
But, we have Sy's annual warning.

Sy Harding changed my life.
Here is his most recent post.

I will also copy it here, as posts can disappear.

BEING STREET SMART
by Sy Harding
HOW LONG WILL 'THE FORCE' BE WITH US! April 20, 2007.

It’s that time of year to remind you again of the market’s annual seasonality.

In both bull and bear markets, in almost every year, the market makes most of its gains in a four to seven month period in the fall and winter months.

There is a powerful and consistent force that produces that pattern, and that force is with us in all kinds of markets and surrounding conditions. The positive force is that investors and institutions receive large chunks of extra money every fall and winter. Those chunks come in the form of dividend and capital gains distributions from mutual funds, which begin in November, from year-end contributions by employers into their employee’s 401k plans, IRAs, and profit-sharing plans, and from Christmas bonuses. They come from year-end dividends from corporations, and from private businesses that calculate their profit for the previous year in January and distribute the profit to the owners in February. They come from income-tax refunds.

A lot of that money isn’t even subject to a decision to invest it or not, but automatically goes into the stock market, including automatically re-invested dividend distributions from mutual funds and corporations, and employer contributions to 401K, IRA, and pension plans.

That extra fuel amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars, and pushes stock prices higher regardless of what is going on in the world or in the economy.

However, as April and May roll around that flow of extra money dries up. That not only deprives the market of the extra fuel that was driving it higher, but leaves it much more vulnerable to any disappointing news or profit-taking that comes along. Thus over the long-term by far most of the market’s gains have been made in its favorable seasons, and most of its serious corrections and crashes have taken place in its unfavorable seasons.

That realization is behind the generalized old Wall Street maxim ‘Sell in May and Go Away’. But my research into seasonality years ago found that the market’s seasons do not lend themselves that specifically to fixed calendar dates. Although the market moves with amazing seasonality, the favorable season can last anywhere from four to seven months, sometimes ending in April, sometimes lasting into late June. It seems to depend on how many latecomers the favorable season rally attracts even as the flow of extra chunks of seasonal money dries up.

So in 1998 I combined a short-term technical indicator, a so-called momentum-reversal indicator, with the calendar. I call the result my Seasonal Timing System, or STS.

The way it works is that when April 20 arrives, indicating the market’s favorable season may soon end, the momentum-reversal indicator takes over. If on April 20, it shows the market’s momentum has rolled over to the downside, the exit from the market’s favorable season is triggered. An investor moves to the sidelines to collect interest on cash, or at least to defensive holdings, for the unfavorable season.

However, if the momentum-reversal indicator shows short-term momentum is still positive, then the exit is delayed until the indicator triggers its next sell signal. Thus is the exit in some years delayed to as late as late June.

Back-tested over the previous 50 years in 1998 the strategy more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 for that 50-year period. That was stunning given that 80% of mutual funds and money-management firms fail to even equal the performance of the S&P over the long-term.

I introduced it in my 1999 book, Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market. Used in real time in my newsletter, and by others since, it has had similar results, even through the devastating 2000-2002 bear market. (In bear markets, any so-called bear-market rallies tend to take place in the market’s favorable seasons each year, while most of the devastating losses still take place in the unfavorable seasons). The entry in 2002 even caught the beginning of the new bull market in October, 2002.

Playing the market’s seasonal patterns owes much of its success to being mechanical. Thus it avoids getting caught up in the usually wrong ‘crowd psychology’ that prevails at market turning points. By that I mean that there is a natural tendency for investors to be fearful after unfavorable season declines have produced market bottoms, usually in the fall, that have them more interested in selling than buying. Conversely, crowd psychology tends to be confident in the spring after the typical rally in the market’s favorable season has cast their fears away, even though the favorable season is usually drawing to a close.

It’s very difficult to outsmart the market’s seasonality. I know that because I also have a non-seasonal market-timing strategy in my newsletter, and like the majority of mutual funds and money-management firms, it beats the performance of the S&P 500 some years, under-performs it other years, and struggles to equal its performance over the long-term, let alone doubling it.

April 20 has arrived. We have certainly not seen the end of upside momentum yet – a new high for the Dow this week. But it is time to keep the market’s seasonality in mind.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., publisher of The Street Smart Report Online at http://www.streetsmartreport.com/ and author of 1999’s Riding The Bear – How To Prosper In the Coming Bear Market!

Dance of Joy

Things are good for us today. Last Friday, my 401k finally went positive for the year after some disastrous decisions (learning opportunities) in the first quarter. And, on a professional level, we finally had a breakthrough on the manufacture of a Solid Trasar batch. I have struggled with this for years. We will be able to quadruple the batch size and the release characteristics are great!

Here is a great article entitled Bond-market timing is a loser's game. It says in part: “Consider the data, raw and unvarnished: Over the last five years, just 10% of the bond timing newsletters tracked by the HFD have outperformed a simply buy-and-hold strategy. Over the last ten years, the percentage is even lower, at just 6%. These proportions are significantly lower even than the already-quite-low success percentages among stock market timing newsletters.” -- Mark Hulbert 4/11/2007

Mother's day is coming up. If you can't think of a thoughtful gift, please consider looking here.

TTFN, Don

Happy Easter

Happy Easter everyone. We had a nice day with family. After lunch, we went to see a new Demdaco nativity at the shop. It's not on the website yet. But, my sister, the art teacher describes it as whimsical.

It looks like the market is likely to open higher tomorrow. If so, I am likely to be above water for the year. Don

Good Friday

Happy Good Friday. Today was a Nalco Holiday, as well as for the banks and stock market. So, I worked at the angel shop. Lots of Internet orders today, which always keeps us busy.

BTW, if you are looking for a bereavement piece that we don't have, I recommend The Comfort Company. They are an Illinois-based company that has been around for 10 years. The owner is Renee Woods, who has appeared on Oprah.

100% small cap

I am going 100% into small cap today. Still down for the year. I am adopting more of a trend-following bias, as the other tools I once used are not working like they once did. You can see our archangel products here.

55% small cap

I have increased my 410k position to 55% small cap.

At the store, one of my favorite pieces is for pilots or any airline professional.
It is the guardian angel of flight pin.

TTFN, Don

Let's get started

My name is Don. I work at Nalco and my wife manages All-About-Angels.com. Hence, NalcoAngel. My personal interests include our children, grandchildren, investing my retirement funds, and angel-themed giftware businesses.

Lately, my investing has suffered. Not sure why. At the current time, I am only 50% invested in the small cap fund.

The angel shop has a cool new gift item for Mother's Day.

TTFN. Don